This last Wednesday night at the Reagan Library, the 8 major Republican candidates squared off in the first debate to showcase Governor Rick Perry's talents at the podium. In the first of several debates that will be taking place into mid-October, there were some noteworthy developments. The second tier candidates tried very hard to gain some momentum, and while everyone was sharp, I don't think anyone gained much ground to speak of. Jon Huntsmann was more assertive, but didn't resonate. Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich got a few applause lines, but both are dead men walking, add Rick Santorum who was flat and did the worst in my opinion, and that pretty much rounds out the bottom feeders.
In the top tier, 2 candidates got sent to the minors, those being Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann. Paul tried very hard to put some hits on Governor Perry, but the more he talks, the more extreme he reveals himself to be. He has his core of supporters that will get him 9-10% in the polls, but I suspect that will gradually erode as time goes on. Michelle Bachmann seems to have peaked with the Ames Straw Poll. She once again played fast and loose with facts, and going into the debate had lost half her support to Perry. She did nothing in this showing that would lead me to alter that position.
Which takes us to the big 2, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. Perry surged ahead of Romney in polling prior to the debate, and many people were watching Perry's debut to see how he would do against the current field. Let me end the suspense, Romney ate his lunch. Mitt Romney was cool, calm, and composed. He was articulate, prepared, and on message. He was unrattled by attacks, and gave as good as he got. Perry was brash, prepared to a point, but became rattled by some questions, he looked like the kid who got called on who didn't do his homework. Then in an attempt to project strength, doubled down on 2 issues that will haunt him and alienate moderates. First, he reiterated his claim that Social Security was a "Ponzi" scheme that didn't need to be fixed, but thrown away. Second, he questioned the science behind global warming, which he claimed was incomplete. He had lots of red meat for the wing nuts, but little appeal for the general election. Remember this is a marathon, not a race. Romney did what he had to do, and Perry fell short. Mark me folks, this was the first time people got to kick the tires on Rick Perry, the more they look under the hood, the less they're gonna like this guy.
So that takes us to last nights Presidential address to Congress and President Obama's introduction of the "American Jobs Bill". The bill provides $450 Billion for tax reform, infrastructure, veterans, teachers, the middle class, mortgage assistance, and more. Now I described this speech as a make or break for the President, and this is what I thought. He painted Republicans into a corner, projected the strength needed for the moment, and most important, has forced Republicans to say "No" to programs they endorse, funded the way they want. Here is a plan that adopts several Republican ideas, then dares them to pay for it by cutting another $500 Billion from the budget to pay for it. Cuts that will be above and beyond the $1.5 Trillion mandated to be cut by the Congressional Super committee, and will include reforms to both Social Security and Medicare. The move was brilliant, and made me wonder where this Barack Obama has been for the last 3 years?
I'll be honest, I didn't think he could pull it off, but he did, and my hats off to him. However, before we start popping champagne corks lets have a little reality check. There are 14 months left before the 2012 elections, and as the President so artfully pointed out, the American people can't wait that long for Congress to act. So where does that leave us? As the President went into detail about his proposed bill, Republicans sat stone faced, and unmoved with each new detail. Remember the Republicans primary goal is to remove Barack Obama from the White House. Do you really think they will be motivated to give him a legislative victory of any kind, just one year from an election? Of course not, that's why the Presidents plan is so perfect. Here is a bill full of your ideas, done the way you want, paid for the way you want, REJECT IT AT YOUR OWN PERIL and show America who you really stand with? If you won't do it YOUR way, what is it gonna take for Republicans to do anything? The line that needed to drawn, has been drawn. Do you fold and get hurt in the election, or do you dig in and say "No" and get hurt in the election. It's a catch 22 and the Republicans know it, question now is, what are they gonna do about it?
In the top tier, 2 candidates got sent to the minors, those being Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann. Paul tried very hard to put some hits on Governor Perry, but the more he talks, the more extreme he reveals himself to be. He has his core of supporters that will get him 9-10% in the polls, but I suspect that will gradually erode as time goes on. Michelle Bachmann seems to have peaked with the Ames Straw Poll. She once again played fast and loose with facts, and going into the debate had lost half her support to Perry. She did nothing in this showing that would lead me to alter that position.
Which takes us to the big 2, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. Perry surged ahead of Romney in polling prior to the debate, and many people were watching Perry's debut to see how he would do against the current field. Let me end the suspense, Romney ate his lunch. Mitt Romney was cool, calm, and composed. He was articulate, prepared, and on message. He was unrattled by attacks, and gave as good as he got. Perry was brash, prepared to a point, but became rattled by some questions, he looked like the kid who got called on who didn't do his homework. Then in an attempt to project strength, doubled down on 2 issues that will haunt him and alienate moderates. First, he reiterated his claim that Social Security was a "Ponzi" scheme that didn't need to be fixed, but thrown away. Second, he questioned the science behind global warming, which he claimed was incomplete. He had lots of red meat for the wing nuts, but little appeal for the general election. Remember this is a marathon, not a race. Romney did what he had to do, and Perry fell short. Mark me folks, this was the first time people got to kick the tires on Rick Perry, the more they look under the hood, the less they're gonna like this guy.
So that takes us to last nights Presidential address to Congress and President Obama's introduction of the "American Jobs Bill". The bill provides $450 Billion for tax reform, infrastructure, veterans, teachers, the middle class, mortgage assistance, and more. Now I described this speech as a make or break for the President, and this is what I thought. He painted Republicans into a corner, projected the strength needed for the moment, and most important, has forced Republicans to say "No" to programs they endorse, funded the way they want. Here is a plan that adopts several Republican ideas, then dares them to pay for it by cutting another $500 Billion from the budget to pay for it. Cuts that will be above and beyond the $1.5 Trillion mandated to be cut by the Congressional Super committee, and will include reforms to both Social Security and Medicare. The move was brilliant, and made me wonder where this Barack Obama has been for the last 3 years?
I'll be honest, I didn't think he could pull it off, but he did, and my hats off to him. However, before we start popping champagne corks lets have a little reality check. There are 14 months left before the 2012 elections, and as the President so artfully pointed out, the American people can't wait that long for Congress to act. So where does that leave us? As the President went into detail about his proposed bill, Republicans sat stone faced, and unmoved with each new detail. Remember the Republicans primary goal is to remove Barack Obama from the White House. Do you really think they will be motivated to give him a legislative victory of any kind, just one year from an election? Of course not, that's why the Presidents plan is so perfect. Here is a bill full of your ideas, done the way you want, paid for the way you want, REJECT IT AT YOUR OWN PERIL and show America who you really stand with? If you won't do it YOUR way, what is it gonna take for Republicans to do anything? The line that needed to drawn, has been drawn. Do you fold and get hurt in the election, or do you dig in and say "No" and get hurt in the election. It's a catch 22 and the Republicans know it, question now is, what are they gonna do about it?
