In what will certainly be one of the top three battleground states of 2012, Mitt Romney pulled off a very convincing 14 point victory over Newt Gingrich in the Florida Primary. In what is essentially a two man race now, Romney pulled out all the stops, after suffering a big defeat in South Carolina to the former House Speaker. How did he do it? In a word "Money", something Governor Romney has plenty of, and is using quite effectively to smear Newt Gingrich into submission. He outspent Gingrich 5 to 1. His ads were 92% negative, and just as he did in Iowa, he has overpowered his opponents by sheer force in dollars. In this post "Citizen United" campaign world we find ourselves in, he spent $16 Million dollars in Florida alone.
However, there is still something missing from the equation. When Gingrich won South Carolina, the Republican establishment had a stroke. As a result, they threw everything but the kitchen sink at Gingrich to slow his momentum, and it worked. They took his 9 point lead and turned it into a 14 loss in 10 days. I thought it particularly ironic that John McCain, and Bob Dole, were the ones rallying to Romney's standard. They are the last two best examples of unpopular establishment candidates that were forced on the party faithful, only to lose big in the general election. All that aside, Florida is a big win for Romney. His biggest problem as I see it, is he doesn't know how to close the deal. This morning coming off his big win he said, "...I don't care about the poor, they have a safety net. I'm concerned about the heart of America." At a time when 1 in 2 Americans are at or below the poverty level, it's statements like this one that reveal just how disingenuous this guy really is. Again, the everyman putting his foot in his mouth, proving time and time again he has no clue about the middle class in this country. Why should he care about the poor? They can't contribute to his campaign, they can't possible garner the influence of his Wall Street contributors at AIG or Goldman-Sachs? Very strong words from a guy who makes $57 Thousand dollars A DAY, don't you think? The harder he tries to connect in someway to the middle class, the more he reveals himself as the spoiled man of privilege, that had everything handed to him on a silver platter, who pays himself $20 Million dollars a year from investment accounts in Switzerland, and the Cayman Islands, and hasn't got the slightest clue what middle class America is dealing with right now.
So where do we go from here? Well, Gingrich has vowed to fight to the end. This is excellent news for President Obama. The longer Gingrich battles Romney, the harder he has to pull to the right, and the more damaged he becomes for the general election. After only four contests, Independents are fleeing Romney in droves, and as I have always said, Independents decide elections. If he is this badly damaged after just four states, just think what he'll look like after fifty? Now, make no mistake about it, Romney is going to be the Republican nominee. There is no viable way for Newt Gingrich to win the nomination, it's just not going to happen. However, he has opted to crusade for the forgotten conservative base, those unwilling to stand behind another establishment loser, in the same vein as McCain and Dole. So the contest is joined, and will likely last until at least May. February is going to be a difficult month for Gingrich. The eight upcoming contests broke this way in 2008. Dark Red Romney won out rite, Red McCain won. These are the contests that lead up to March 3rd, Super Tuesday being March 6th.
These are all establishment states, and with only one establishment candidate, Romney should win all these contests handily. So it is going to be a long five weeks before Gingrich has a chance to garner some more delegates in the south, which is basically his only strong suit. However, Gingrich still has some powerful allies in radical right wing radio broadcasters, Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and the like. This pit of vipers will be relentlessly attacking Romney through this entire period. A pretty hard core attack machine that won't cost Gingrich a dime, while he regroups for Super Tuesday. Bottom line, it's on, and if Gingrich can somehow keep it going, keep raising money to stay in the fight, and drag this out until the convention, the better it will be for Democrats and the President.
Finally, I want to mention Rick Santorum who is out of this race, and remains in it for one reason, he wants to be Vice President. So he is trying to play the "Sane" alternative to Gingrich's slash and burn conservative campaign. He too says he wants to continue to the end, but I predict he will be out by Super Tuesday, and then endorse Mitt Romney as his final play to get the number two spot. So it's on to Nevada and five more weeks of infighting. Thank You Newt Gingrich!
However, there is still something missing from the equation. When Gingrich won South Carolina, the Republican establishment had a stroke. As a result, they threw everything but the kitchen sink at Gingrich to slow his momentum, and it worked. They took his 9 point lead and turned it into a 14 loss in 10 days. I thought it particularly ironic that John McCain, and Bob Dole, were the ones rallying to Romney's standard. They are the last two best examples of unpopular establishment candidates that were forced on the party faithful, only to lose big in the general election. All that aside, Florida is a big win for Romney. His biggest problem as I see it, is he doesn't know how to close the deal. This morning coming off his big win he said, "...I don't care about the poor, they have a safety net. I'm concerned about the heart of America." At a time when 1 in 2 Americans are at or below the poverty level, it's statements like this one that reveal just how disingenuous this guy really is. Again, the everyman putting his foot in his mouth, proving time and time again he has no clue about the middle class in this country. Why should he care about the poor? They can't contribute to his campaign, they can't possible garner the influence of his Wall Street contributors at AIG or Goldman-Sachs? Very strong words from a guy who makes $57 Thousand dollars A DAY, don't you think? The harder he tries to connect in someway to the middle class, the more he reveals himself as the spoiled man of privilege, that had everything handed to him on a silver platter, who pays himself $20 Million dollars a year from investment accounts in Switzerland, and the Cayman Islands, and hasn't got the slightest clue what middle class America is dealing with right now.
So where do we go from here? Well, Gingrich has vowed to fight to the end. This is excellent news for President Obama. The longer Gingrich battles Romney, the harder he has to pull to the right, and the more damaged he becomes for the general election. After only four contests, Independents are fleeing Romney in droves, and as I have always said, Independents decide elections. If he is this badly damaged after just four states, just think what he'll look like after fifty? Now, make no mistake about it, Romney is going to be the Republican nominee. There is no viable way for Newt Gingrich to win the nomination, it's just not going to happen. However, he has opted to crusade for the forgotten conservative base, those unwilling to stand behind another establishment loser, in the same vein as McCain and Dole. So the contest is joined, and will likely last until at least May. February is going to be a difficult month for Gingrich. The eight upcoming contests broke this way in 2008. Dark Red Romney won out rite, Red McCain won. These are the contests that lead up to March 3rd, Super Tuesday being March 6th.
These are all establishment states, and with only one establishment candidate, Romney should win all these contests handily. So it is going to be a long five weeks before Gingrich has a chance to garner some more delegates in the south, which is basically his only strong suit. However, Gingrich still has some powerful allies in radical right wing radio broadcasters, Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and the like. This pit of vipers will be relentlessly attacking Romney through this entire period. A pretty hard core attack machine that won't cost Gingrich a dime, while he regroups for Super Tuesday. Bottom line, it's on, and if Gingrich can somehow keep it going, keep raising money to stay in the fight, and drag this out until the convention, the better it will be for Democrats and the President.
Finally, I want to mention Rick Santorum who is out of this race, and remains in it for one reason, he wants to be Vice President. So he is trying to play the "Sane" alternative to Gingrich's slash and burn conservative campaign. He too says he wants to continue to the end, but I predict he will be out by Super Tuesday, and then endorse Mitt Romney as his final play to get the number two spot. So it's on to Nevada and five more weeks of infighting. Thank You Newt Gingrich!
