Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Romney Steams Ahead, While Obama Has New Worries

Last night I suffered through my fourth Republican debate in as many weeks, and found no new evidence to convince me that Mitt Romney will not be the Republican nominee. He took the most hits from the other candidates, and continued to present his plan for America, confidently and unshaken. He clearly was the winner last night. Boosted earlier in the day by the endorsement of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Romney is beginning to solidify his mainstream Republican backers. However, he continues to struggle to attract Tea Party, and evangelical social conservatives. I suspect their difficulty will slowly vanish, as the remainder of the Republican field continues to prove their un-electability. Herman Cain seems to be the new Right Wing flavor of the month, and for all the talk about his 9-9-9 plan, he lacks depth, and did not perform well in the spotlight last night. Perry admitted he was a poor debater, and backed that up with another poor showing. The rest of the field continued to do what they do, but lit no sparks that would change any one's opinion of them other than what current polls predict.

There was one glaring change that took place last night that had not happened in the three previous debates, and it came from Mitt Romney. He not once, but several times, mentioned the middle class. The rest of the field was silent on the middle class, as usual, but Romney made a concerted effort to make them a focus of his economic proposals. He is clearly attempting to appeal to Independents, and with good reason.

In a recent CNN poll for the first time, 53% of Independents disapprove of the President, while 43% said they approve. Let's make this crystal clear, if Obama loses Independents he's finished. However, I'm not ready to run around the school yard crying the sky is falling just yet, there is plenty of time to turn this around. Other signs don't bode well for the President either, polls in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa put him in a statistical dead heat with Romney, and losing to him by 9% in New Hampshire.

So how does Obama get a second term in our current toxic political environment? The Occupy Wall Street, and other similar groups protesting across the country hold contempt for both political parties, and with good reason. In the Senate yesterday two Democratic Senators voted against President Obama's Jobs Act. In the House Leader John Boehner (R-OH) can't control the Tea Party caucus, as much as he would like us to believe he does. When party leaders on both sides can't control their own people, you get the kind of political gridlock people are simply fed up with, and as much as I would like Democrats to profit from this uprising on the Left, they profit only by sentiment and not action.

There is a debate out there as to whether Obama should run Left in a Truman-esk fashion against a do nothing congress, or like FDR who called a spade a spade and told Republicans to basically go for it, I stand with the middle class. Or run to middle like President Clinton did in 1996. The problem with both of these strategies is that the American people don't trust either party to fix things. Since Romney is a mainstream guy right of center, I think Obama has to do the same. Independents are the key to the castle. While my heart says go hard left, the pragmatic choice is to move to the center. Oh there is just one other small problem... the economy remains in the tank, unemployment remains above 9%, despite Obama's good intentions, the Republicans are going to make sure it stays that way for another year, a major strike against the incumbent President. It's an uphill battle, and current strategy doesn't seem to be resonating, quite frankly the President has his hands full, and unless he catches a break somewhere, things have the potential to go very ugly, very quickly.