Friday, December 30, 2011

Iowa Still Fluid Four Days From Caucus

Well the real voting is about to begin for Republicans, just 4 days away from the Iowa Caucus's. Yet the field remains wide open, and it will most likely not solidify until to voting begins on Tuesday. As predicted, Newt Gingrich has dropped like a rock, withering from the weight of his personal, and political past. As the only social conservative not to have taken the lead yet, Rick Santorum is now surging, but like his social conservative rivals Michelle Bachmann, and Rick Perry, they are fracturing that vote. Which leaves us with Ron Paul's die hards, and Mitt Romney's establishment voters.

However, there is something brewing late in the game that my prove interesting. Many of the pundits left, and right, have been quick to ring the death nell for Iowa as the first contest in the nation. Its mostly white, evangelical, agrarian communities are not representative of the nation as a whole, and many are calling for Iowa to relinquish it top spot. This has not fallen on deaf ears in Iowa, and its people are anxious to remain relevant. So late in the game, many people are concentrating on picking a President, not a candidate. The thought being I like him/her, but can they win?

This has produced a bit of a bump for Romney, as people begin to realize, despite all his shortcomings, he is going to be the nominee. Exhausted social conservatives who still can't embrace Romney, will probably go for Santorum, and the wack-a-doodle libertarians will vote for Paul. The question is will Iowa voters come around to Romney fast enough to snatch victory away from Ron Paul? It's hard to say, check with the Des Monies Register's Poll due out Saturday night, it has been a pretty reliable tell tale of how the caucuses pan out.

If Mitt Romney pulls out a win in Iowa, a state that until recently he gave little credence, he will be well on his way to the nomination. He has New Hampshire locked up, and even a challenge from Gingrich in South Carolina won't slow his momentum. As Gingrich continues to implode with each passing day, he my be out of the picture by the time South Carolina rolls around. Gingrich himself has called South Carolina his Waterloo, question is will he be able to take the field when the battle comes? So will Iowans vote their principals or the inevitable? Tune in Tuesday, it should prove interesting.