As we come down to the beginning of the Republican primary season, only two men seem to be standing upright when the real voting begins roughly 30 days from now. Let see what Republicans are working with, and what we can look forward to as the first contest approaches. First, lets look at 2008 to see who carried what then.
The maps are described as follows Dark Red Won, Light Red 2nd, Cream 3rd or Lower, Black No Data Available.
Lets first look at the overall winner John McCain who I think it is fair to say represented the Republican establishment, before the rise of the Tea Party's influence. He won most of the states, with a few exceptions, that would be considered home to the mainstream Republican Party.
Now lets look at 2008 candidate Mitt Romney who basically carried the west, with the exception of Michigan and Massachusetts where he has close personal ties.
Then finally Mike Huckabee, who won primarily in the deep south or where ever evangelical social conservatives hold sway like the bible belt.
Now, the two front runners fighting for the nomination are Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Why will Romney prevail here? Look at the maps again. In 2008, McCain and Romney were for all intents fighting for the same people. Mike Huckabee was fighting for the far right christian conservative voters. They tend to be more volatile, angry, ignorant, birthers, harsh on immigration, against gay rights, against abortion. These are the people who bring guns to political rallies, call Obama a Muslim, a socialist, a communist, (all code for nigger), they want to take America back, (from the nigger), these are the people Newt Gingrich appeals to. He is belligerent, he takes on issues that appeal solely to these people, he has no respect for the mainstream media and points it out at every opportunity. He is intellectual, articulate, and just the kind of pit bull this constituency is looking for to take it to Obama. However, like all candidates he has some glaring flaws as well. He is pompous, arrogant, egotistical, He has been married 3 times. His first wife he left in the midst of cerebral palsy, his second in the midst of cancer, his moral character is extremely damaged. He was the only Speaker of the House to be fined $300,000 for ethics violations. He was forced not only from the speakership, but Congress, by his own beloved Republican Party, and like his opponent has flip-flopped on several issues.
On the reverse we have Mitt Romney, the Republican Republicans love to hate. He has yet to break the 30% mark in any poll, he has captured the die hard silent keepers of mainstream Republican thought, but the Tea Party and evangelical social conservatives can't stand him. They won't say it, but being a Mormon makes them crazy. His political views depend upon the audience to which he is speaking, and or the political expediency that will best serve him at the moment. As a result you have a candidate that has been on every side of every issue, and the media has the videotape to prove it. He is not the darling of Rupert Murdoch's FOX News, who have turned on him in recent days, because they want Gingrich the pit bull. However, what he does have going for him is this: He has a national organization, He has money, and lots of it. He is unoffensive, and much less prone to the gaffs and obnoxious brain farts Gingrich puts out, with much to much frequency. Gingrich has no national organization, he is practically broke and he lives day to day, and the main reason he won't win the nomination, He is an abrasive prima-donna who may fire up the far right, but will quickly turn off the rest of the country, including Independents.
Take a look at the maps again. Romney gets his old states along with McCain's plus or minus. Gingrich gets Huckabee's states plus or minus, it's no contest. The best part is that the Republicans will have a nominee that they don't like, or better can't stand. The last time they had a candidate like that was... well 2008, and we all know how that story ended.
The maps are described as follows Dark Red Won, Light Red 2nd, Cream 3rd or Lower, Black No Data Available.
Lets first look at the overall winner John McCain who I think it is fair to say represented the Republican establishment, before the rise of the Tea Party's influence. He won most of the states, with a few exceptions, that would be considered home to the mainstream Republican Party.
Now lets look at 2008 candidate Mitt Romney who basically carried the west, with the exception of Michigan and Massachusetts where he has close personal ties.
Then finally Mike Huckabee, who won primarily in the deep south or where ever evangelical social conservatives hold sway like the bible belt.
Now, the two front runners fighting for the nomination are Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Why will Romney prevail here? Look at the maps again. In 2008, McCain and Romney were for all intents fighting for the same people. Mike Huckabee was fighting for the far right christian conservative voters. They tend to be more volatile, angry, ignorant, birthers, harsh on immigration, against gay rights, against abortion. These are the people who bring guns to political rallies, call Obama a Muslim, a socialist, a communist, (all code for nigger), they want to take America back, (from the nigger), these are the people Newt Gingrich appeals to. He is belligerent, he takes on issues that appeal solely to these people, he has no respect for the mainstream media and points it out at every opportunity. He is intellectual, articulate, and just the kind of pit bull this constituency is looking for to take it to Obama. However, like all candidates he has some glaring flaws as well. He is pompous, arrogant, egotistical, He has been married 3 times. His first wife he left in the midst of cerebral palsy, his second in the midst of cancer, his moral character is extremely damaged. He was the only Speaker of the House to be fined $300,000 for ethics violations. He was forced not only from the speakership, but Congress, by his own beloved Republican Party, and like his opponent has flip-flopped on several issues.
On the reverse we have Mitt Romney, the Republican Republicans love to hate. He has yet to break the 30% mark in any poll, he has captured the die hard silent keepers of mainstream Republican thought, but the Tea Party and evangelical social conservatives can't stand him. They won't say it, but being a Mormon makes them crazy. His political views depend upon the audience to which he is speaking, and or the political expediency that will best serve him at the moment. As a result you have a candidate that has been on every side of every issue, and the media has the videotape to prove it. He is not the darling of Rupert Murdoch's FOX News, who have turned on him in recent days, because they want Gingrich the pit bull. However, what he does have going for him is this: He has a national organization, He has money, and lots of it. He is unoffensive, and much less prone to the gaffs and obnoxious brain farts Gingrich puts out, with much to much frequency. Gingrich has no national organization, he is practically broke and he lives day to day, and the main reason he won't win the nomination, He is an abrasive prima-donna who may fire up the far right, but will quickly turn off the rest of the country, including Independents.
Take a look at the maps again. Romney gets his old states along with McCain's plus or minus. Gingrich gets Huckabee's states plus or minus, it's no contest. The best part is that the Republicans will have a nominee that they don't like, or better can't stand. The last time they had a candidate like that was... well 2008, and we all know how that story ended.
