If the current model holds, and with 270 votes needed to win, the breakdown would go like this.
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
303 235
In the past few elections the key battleground states that have been the primary focus have been Florida, and Ohio. Now while this still holds true, I think Virginia is going to be the key state the President must carry to be re-elected, followed by Ohio as insurance. The fact is President Obama can still win while loosing both Ohio and Florida, but he must carry Virginia. There are two new states under scrutiny that have generally been considered solid blue, and solid red respectively, they are Wisconsin and Arizona.
In Wisconsin, where the recall effort against current Governor Scott Walker is just days away, polling just a week ago had the embattled Governor up by 6 points. I suspect in large part to the millions in outside cash that has been bankrolled by right wing groups to save his neck. Meanwhile, the DNC refuses to help counter Walker's edge by supporting his Democratic challenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. I can only attribute the unchallenged wave of negative ads against Barrett to Obama's big drop in the polls there, the President is holding the state with less than 2%.
In Arizona, the rise in the immigrant population, the fury over anti-immigration legislation, the stone age bills passed regarding abortion and women's rights, and the assault on voting rights, all have the Democrats within striking distance. Romney's lead here is just 4%.
Romney has made some gains in recent polling with regard to the economy, and economic news has taken a downturn. All the gains made in the stock market since January are gone. People are unhappy with the Presidents handling of the economy, and 2/3rds thing we are going in the wrong direction. An equal number think their children will be worse off that they are, all bad news for Obama. Despite the economic news, Romney is still being hounded by his Bain Capital days. The Presidents support for gay marriage seems to be a wash for the moment, and independents are lining up to choose between the devil they know, and the devil they don't.
Romney's biggest problem is he has a much more difficult road to travel in order to get to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win. Looking at the states Obama carried in 2008, he can afford to lose Ohio, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, and still beat Romney. National polling has the Presidential contest a dead heat, but Obama is winning where it counts. In a side note: there are a freakishly odd number of scenarios that could end in a 269 - 269 tie, and that would seem to be Romney's best chance, since it would then go to the Republican controlled House to be decided.
