Hold the phone people, we may just have a race on our hands for the Republican nomination. What was suppose to end as a 3-0 sweep for Mitt Romney, has turned into a 1-2 Free for all. Starting off, Romney finds out he has in fact, lost Iowa to Rick Santorum. Next, he is still struggling hard to connect with conservative Republican voters. This was evidenced by his 12 point shellacking in South Carolina. A victory that came just 2 days after polls put him up by 10 points. So how did he do it? By whipping up hard right conservative rubes, attacking the media elite, and in general tapping into a deep seated hatred for President Obama. The vision he paints for America is not conciliatory, or hopeful, or based on pragmatic substance of any kind. In the case of South Carolina, he won because he played to the baser dog whistle issues that gather great enthusiasm, particularly in the south. I found this incredibly evident while trying to make his victory speech in Columbia last night, while being constantly assailed by a handful of drunk rednecks in the audience. I almost felt bad for the man.
So what does this do for the race? Well, it makes it a lot longer, which is good for the Democrats. Three contests, and three winners, does not bode well for Romney in particular. He is the establishment pick, but the people STILL are not buying. The next contest in Florida now plants a crossroads. Does the establishment regain control with a Romney win? or does Gingrich pull off another win, which will begin, I believe, Romney's collapse. However, Florida is NOT South Carolina, make no mistake about it, and I think it will take more than a few good debate performances, and angry rhetoric to win there. He likes to demonize the President, but his vision for America gets lost in his hubris. There is a reason 60% of the American people don't like him personally, and those numbers come from FOX!
The other consideration to note now is Rick Santorum? Despite his 75% support from a meeting of evangelical leaders in Texas last week, Gingrich beat him by more than 2 to 1. He says he's staying in, but so did Rick Perry. If Santorum folds before the Super Tuesday primaries in March, all bets are off, because those voters will go overwhelmingly to Gingrich. I also don't see Santorum keeping pace in the cash race, not to mention his primary message is only resonating with a fraction of the conservatives he needs to continue. Faith, Family, and Freedom, would have played a lot better in 2004, than in 2012. Yes conservatives think family is important, but jobs and the economy are more important. If Newt Gingrich can take the issue of entertaining an open marriage, and go from Judas to Jesus in 6.5 seconds, while vilifying the liberal media at the same time, I think it's fair to say people just don't care about those issues as much in this election cycle.
Will conservatives be able to buck the establishment candidate they want, which is Romney? The question is more in doubt than ever, but if they do, you can bet Democrats will be saying "Yes Virginia there is a Santa Clause!" Why? Because Newt Gingrich will hand the Republicans the candidate they may want, but he will also hand them the biggest Democratic presidential victory since Johnson beat Goldwater. The man is loved by the far right, but he cannot win a general election. In South Carolina for the first time, polls suggested Republican voters thought Gingrich was the better man to beat President Obama. It's game on people! Now if you'll excuse me I have to put my new "Gingrich for President" sign in the yard.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
