Can Mitt Romney Win In The South? ...Maybe

Well aside from the handful of delegates to be decided today in the American territories of the Northern Marianas Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Guam, most eyes will be on the caucus in the sunflower state of Kansas. It is widely expected that Rick Santorum will win big here. There are 40 delegates up for grabs in Kansas, and 27 delegates in the 3 territorial contests combined, 9 delegates each. The next series of contests are this coming Tuesday March 13th. They will include caucuses in the Territory of American Samoa with 9 delegates, and Hawaii, with 20 delegates, also the primaries in Alabama, with 50 delegates, and Mississippi, with 40 delegates.

The primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, are thought to be fights between Father Rick and Newt Gingrich. Gingrich in particular has said both states are must wins for him to continue. However, the latest polling I have, puts both states very much in question.




IN ALABAMA:

Gingrich: 31%
Romney: 30%
Santorum: 29%
Paul 8%




IN MISSISSIPPI:

Romney: 35%
Gingrich 31%
Santorum 26%
Paul 7%

In what were suppose to be easy pickings for the social conservatives, Romney is in a statistical dead heat in both of these southern states. In 2008, Huckabee won Alabama, but McCain won Mississippi. So is it possible Romney can stake some wins in the bumpkin belt? Maybe. In spite of himself, Romney has struggled to end this rather damaging and contentious primary fight. He needed to win in Florida, and did. He needed to win in Michigan, and did. He needed to win in Ohio, and did, but still he can't shut down the process. If he wins just one of these states,(and my money is on Mississippi), he will have passed every test put to him. If he wins in the south, while Santorum and Gingrich may linger, the shows over. The problem is he will become the Republican nominee, without the support of the Republican base. Jimmy Carter did the same thing in 1976, with the Democrats. However, it is an incredibly difficult position to operate in, and Romney's fiscal conservative message, will have a hard time finding a home in the party's current social conservative firestorm. The thing he's betting on is that once nominated, he will end up getting the social conservative voters anyway, if for no other reason, than their hate of Obama. A bet I would say is a pretty sad, but fair assumption.

Republicans Phoney War On Gas Prices

The recent rise in oil prices has prompted Republicans, and the subsequent rise in gasoline prices, as a hot political issue they can use to their advantage. They have put the blame squarely on President Obama's energy policies, as the main reason prices have spiked of late. The current unrest in the Middle East has nothing to do with it, nor does the impact of Wall Street speculators, who some say add upwards of 56 cents plus, to a gallon of gasoline.



So lets look at some facts that are all factors in rising gas prices. 1) Israel has made it well known as a matter of national security, it will bomb Iran to prevent it from gaining a nuclear weapon. 2) Iran has threatened to close the strait of Hormuz, and conducted military exercises there to emphasize it. 3) In response, promising to keep the strait open, the United States sent 2 carrier strike groups into the Persian Gulf. It should be noted 1 out of every 5 barrels of oil pass through this strait. 4) Tensions in the Middle East are much higher than usual. Libya is struggling through a power vacuum since Gaddafi's death. Egypt is struggling to transfer government power from the military to the people. Syria is imploding, and sinking into civil war. 5) To add fuel to that fire, Senator John McCain has taken to the Senate floor calling for the United States to bomb Syria. It should be noted the Syrian regime is supported by both Russia and China, and any military attacks would become a proxy war against those states, Syria is not Libya. 6) All of the Republican presidential contenders, (except Ron Paul), have been quite outspoken about going to war with Iran in order to stop them from obtaining nuclear weapons. 7) At least 3 major oil refineries have suffered fires, or some kind of disaster, that has limited or stopped gasoline production at those facilities. 8) The general atmosphere in the Middle East has Wall Street speculators driving the price of oil up, on the fear that supply could be cut at any time.

Now, in the face of so many factors, is it really President Obama's fault gas prices are rising? Under President Obama, national domestic oil production has risen 8%, after declining during the Bush Administration. Oil rig start ups are up 350%. Supply has never been greater, despite demand being at its lowest level since 1997, which is a direct result of the high prices. So when you hear how gas prices are all President Obama's fault, give them the facts. To illustrate how the Fox News Republican noise machine blames President Obama when he is in office, and "uncontrollable market forces" are responsible when President Bush was in office, you have to watch this clip from The Ed Show on MSNBC which sums it all up quite nicely.

www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755822/ns/msnbc_tv-the_ed_show/#46661745

Romney Takes Ohio, But Did He Seal The Deal?

After a night that had something for everybody, Mitt Romney won 6 of Super Tuesday's 10 contests, including the all important state of Ohio. In Ohio, Romney grabbed 39% of the vote to Santorums 38%, out of 895,835 votes cast, Romney's margin of victory was only 12,019. So with 23 contests in the books, lets check the map. Remember Romney is DARK RED, Santorum is RED, Gingrich is PINK, Paul is GRAY. According to CNN, the delegate count is Romney at 404, Santorum 165, Gingrich 106, and Paul 66. 1,144 are needed to win.


Romney comes out of Super Tuesday with the lions share of victories, and the delegates to go with them, but did he seal the deal last night? I'm not so sure? The fact remains that Mitt Romney has a serious problem in the rural south and mid-west. In the south he has been unable to reach 30%, In the mid-west Romney squeaked by in Ohio because he outspent Father Rick 12 to 1, and even then still almost lost.

So Romney picked up Ohio, Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts, Idaho, and Alaska. Father Rick took Oklahoma, Tennessee, and North Dakota. Newt Gingrich won big in his home state of Georgia. However, Romney better savor the flavor, because he is entering a series of states he will not win. The 5 major states upcoming are Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Illinois with the exception of Illinois, where Chicago may carry Romney over the hump, the remaining 4 will go to either Santorum or Gingrich. Further compounding his problem of connecting with the nation's rural, evangelical, social conservative voters.

So where are Gingrich and Santorum winning? Gingrich has won South Carolina, Georgia, and despite losing the state of Florida, he carried the old south redneck northern part of the state. Setting himself up for possible wins in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Santorum I think would be highly competitive in Kansas and Illinois. Oddly I don't have any data on Hawaii from 2008, so I'm not sure who might win there. So after coming through Super Tuesday with the most gained, he is heading into a period that will prove very difficult for him.


So in spite of Newt Gingrich's baggage, and Father Rick's wild religious rhetoric, both men are appealing to a part of the Republican electorate that simply can not bond with the idea that Mitt Romney, most likely, will get this nomination. To add insult to injury they're doing it with little or no money, and poor national organizations. I have news for you people, if Newt Gingrich was out of this contest, Father Rick would have wrapped this up weeks ago. How's that for a sobering thought?

The next question, is this primary process over? not a chance. If the social conservatives were smart they would be turning up the heat on Gingrich to get out of the race, giving Santorum a fighting chance to really challenge Romney. The problem, Newt Gingrich is an overblown ego maniac, who will screw Santorum just to stay in the fight. Which is odd, considering his rabid dislike of Romney. Yet, in Gingrich's mind Santorum should be the one to drop out, which in his deluded dreams of grandure, would somehow propel him to the nomination. Of course this is a pipe dream of gigantic proportions, Gingrich may win a few more states, but he is not going anywhere, the man as a viable presidential candidate is finished.

So with Super Tuesday quickly fading in the rear view mirror, can Romney maintain his front-runner status after 3 weeks of unfriendly contests? Can Santorum continue despite his disadvantage in message, money, and organization? Will Gingrich and Father Rick split the upcoming states, in Kansas and the south? Will Gingrich get out of the race to give Santorum a shot? All this and much more to be decided in the days ahead. Next stop the Kansas Caucus this Saturday March 10th, be there or be square.

Will Romney's Momentum Carry Him Through Super Tuesday

Mitt Romney is coming off two caucus wins in Wyoming on Thursday, and Washington State yesterday, as we head into the contests on Super Tuesday. Added to his wins last Tuesday in Michigan, and Arizona, puts him on a four state roll. There are seven primaries, and three caucuses less than 48 hours away, so can Romney keep it going?


In what is seen as the, do or die state of Ohio for Rick Santorum, last weeks eleven point lead has degenerated into a statistical dead heat. Father Rick is banking on his western Pennsylvania blue collar appeal to help him in the buckeye state. However, he has continued to target his rhetoric on social conservative religious issues, which many attribute to his drop in the polls. In Tennessee, where just three days ago he held a twenty one point lead, it now stands at just four. In Oklahoma, Santorum is maintaining a fifteen point edge over Romney.

So where Father Rick stood to gain at least three states on Super Tuesday, now he looks to hold only one in the bag. In Georgia, it looks like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is going to carry his home state. So with Gingrich concentrating on Georgia, and Oklahoma looking like Santorums only sure thing, that leaves the other eight contests within Romneys grasp. However, in North Dakota, Ron Paul is expected to give Romney a run for his money, some are even saying Congressman Paul has a good chance to carry the state.

However, despite all the good news for Romney, the man still has a likability problem that shows no sign of going away in the days ahead. His often robotic uncomfortable perception remains, and is something that he is definitely going to have to improve on in the coming weeks. If he wins the lion share of states this Tuesday, it should relieve some of the pressure to keep pace with Father Rick, and the lunatic fringe. I put my money on Romney last August, and while his competitors will linger, Tuesday will signal the beginning of the end for the rest of the field. I think this will particularly hold true if Romney pulls out a win in Ohio. The next step will be if he can repair the damage his opponents have inflicted, not to mention the damage he has done to himself.