Can Mitt Romney Win In The South? ...Maybe

Well aside from the handful of delegates to be decided today in the American territories of the Northern Marianas Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Guam, most eyes will be on the caucus in the sunflower state of Kansas. It is widely expected that Rick Santorum will win big here. There are 40 delegates up for grabs in Kansas, and 27 delegates in the 3 territorial contests combined, 9 delegates each. The next series of contests are this coming Tuesday March 13th. They will include caucuses in the Territory of American Samoa with 9 delegates, and Hawaii, with 20 delegates, also the primaries in Alabama, with 50 delegates, and Mississippi, with 40 delegates.

The primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, are thought to be fights between Father Rick and Newt Gingrich. Gingrich in particular has said both states are must wins for him to continue. However, the latest polling I have, puts both states very much in question.




IN ALABAMA:

Gingrich: 31%
Romney: 30%
Santorum: 29%
Paul 8%




IN MISSISSIPPI:

Romney: 35%
Gingrich 31%
Santorum 26%
Paul 7%

In what were suppose to be easy pickings for the social conservatives, Romney is in a statistical dead heat in both of these southern states. In 2008, Huckabee won Alabama, but McCain won Mississippi. So is it possible Romney can stake some wins in the bumpkin belt? Maybe. In spite of himself, Romney has struggled to end this rather damaging and contentious primary fight. He needed to win in Florida, and did. He needed to win in Michigan, and did. He needed to win in Ohio, and did, but still he can't shut down the process. If he wins just one of these states,(and my money is on Mississippi), he will have passed every test put to him. If he wins in the south, while Santorum and Gingrich may linger, the shows over. The problem is he will become the Republican nominee, without the support of the Republican base. Jimmy Carter did the same thing in 1976, with the Democrats. However, it is an incredibly difficult position to operate in, and Romney's fiscal conservative message, will have a hard time finding a home in the party's current social conservative firestorm. The thing he's betting on is that once nominated, he will end up getting the social conservative voters anyway, if for no other reason, than their hate of Obama. A bet I would say is a pretty sad, but fair assumption.