Romney Takes Ohio, But Did He Seal The Deal?

After a night that had something for everybody, Mitt Romney won 6 of Super Tuesday's 10 contests, including the all important state of Ohio. In Ohio, Romney grabbed 39% of the vote to Santorums 38%, out of 895,835 votes cast, Romney's margin of victory was only 12,019. So with 23 contests in the books, lets check the map. Remember Romney is DARK RED, Santorum is RED, Gingrich is PINK, Paul is GRAY. According to CNN, the delegate count is Romney at 404, Santorum 165, Gingrich 106, and Paul 66. 1,144 are needed to win.


Romney comes out of Super Tuesday with the lions share of victories, and the delegates to go with them, but did he seal the deal last night? I'm not so sure? The fact remains that Mitt Romney has a serious problem in the rural south and mid-west. In the south he has been unable to reach 30%, In the mid-west Romney squeaked by in Ohio because he outspent Father Rick 12 to 1, and even then still almost lost.

So Romney picked up Ohio, Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts, Idaho, and Alaska. Father Rick took Oklahoma, Tennessee, and North Dakota. Newt Gingrich won big in his home state of Georgia. However, Romney better savor the flavor, because he is entering a series of states he will not win. The 5 major states upcoming are Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Illinois with the exception of Illinois, where Chicago may carry Romney over the hump, the remaining 4 will go to either Santorum or Gingrich. Further compounding his problem of connecting with the nation's rural, evangelical, social conservative voters.

So where are Gingrich and Santorum winning? Gingrich has won South Carolina, Georgia, and despite losing the state of Florida, he carried the old south redneck northern part of the state. Setting himself up for possible wins in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Santorum I think would be highly competitive in Kansas and Illinois. Oddly I don't have any data on Hawaii from 2008, so I'm not sure who might win there. So after coming through Super Tuesday with the most gained, he is heading into a period that will prove very difficult for him.


So in spite of Newt Gingrich's baggage, and Father Rick's wild religious rhetoric, both men are appealing to a part of the Republican electorate that simply can not bond with the idea that Mitt Romney, most likely, will get this nomination. To add insult to injury they're doing it with little or no money, and poor national organizations. I have news for you people, if Newt Gingrich was out of this contest, Father Rick would have wrapped this up weeks ago. How's that for a sobering thought?

The next question, is this primary process over? not a chance. If the social conservatives were smart they would be turning up the heat on Gingrich to get out of the race, giving Santorum a fighting chance to really challenge Romney. The problem, Newt Gingrich is an overblown ego maniac, who will screw Santorum just to stay in the fight. Which is odd, considering his rabid dislike of Romney. Yet, in Gingrich's mind Santorum should be the one to drop out, which in his deluded dreams of grandure, would somehow propel him to the nomination. Of course this is a pipe dream of gigantic proportions, Gingrich may win a few more states, but he is not going anywhere, the man as a viable presidential candidate is finished.

So with Super Tuesday quickly fading in the rear view mirror, can Romney maintain his front-runner status after 3 weeks of unfriendly contests? Can Santorum continue despite his disadvantage in message, money, and organization? Will Gingrich and Father Rick split the upcoming states, in Kansas and the south? Will Gingrich get out of the race to give Santorum a shot? All this and much more to be decided in the days ahead. Next stop the Kansas Caucus this Saturday March 10th, be there or be square.