Most people agree that the popular vote in the coming Presidential election is going to be very close. However, in the electoral college where Presidential decisions are made, the President continues to hold an edge. It is generally a given these days that the northeast and pacific west go Democratic, while the south, excluding Florida, and the interior west go Republican. This leaves a few "battleground states" to pick the winner. While some pundits have as many as a dozen "battlegrounds", I have just a few, they are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. If Obama can hold the standard Democratic states, and just 2 of these 4, he wins. In past years the major battlegrounds have been Florida and Ohio, and while they are still very important, Obama can loose both of them and still win the election. Romney really needs to win both, to have any chance at beating Obama. At present I have them splitting, Florida to Romney, Ohio to Obama. Even though Romney is currently winning Florida by less than 0.5%, and Obama is winning Ohio with less than 2.0%, if Obama can take just one of these states, it will serve as a nice buffer for any gains Romney can muster.... Unless?
The one area of the country that we have not talked about, fractures. It has been a Democratic stronghold of late, but shows signs it may not be able to be taken for granted. I'm talking about the upper mid-west, specifically Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.
In Iowa: Obama is leading here by only 1.8%*. Iowa has 6 electoral votes, and in 2008 went big for Obama by 10 points. It has voted Democratic 4 out of the last 5 elections.
In Wisconsin: Obama is leading here by 3.4%*. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes, and in 2008 also went big for Obama by 14 points. It has voted Democratic 5 out of the last 5 elections.
In Michigan: Obama is leading here by 4.7%*. Michigan has 16 electoral votes, and in 2008 went for Obama by 16 points. It has voted Democratic 5 out of the last 5 elections.
In Ohio: Obama is leading here by 1.8%*. Ohio has 18 electoral votes, and in 2008 went for Obama by 5 points. It has voted Democratic 3 out of the last 5 elections.
While Obama won all these states in 2008, the current margins have them very much in question? In Iowa he's down 8.2%, in Wisconsin down 10.6%, in Michigan down 11.3%, and in Ohio down 3.2%.
This is Mitt Romney's back door. If he can take 2, or even 3 of these states, the President's foundation begins to crumble. However, if he did loose Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but won both Florida and Ohio he still wins. As you begin to go through all the potential scenarios one universal truth remains, and that is that Romney's path to the White House is much more difficult than Obama's.
The 4 states I mention here are currently light blue, the question is will they stay that way? The margins are weak, and with Scott Walker's win in Wisconsin, there is renewed hope by Republicans that the Badger State may be up for grabs. Iowa and Ohio are almost dead even, and Michigan Romney's main home state, is drifting right. A poll released just yesterday, had Obama up in the Wolverine State by just one point. The poll before that had Romney up by one.
All this stands as a reminder that right now Obama is winning where it counts, but his leads are tenuous and it won't take much to turn the tide in Romney's favor. As economic news remains bleak, and Europe continues to implode, there are a lot of intangibles out there that the President has no control over, that may tip things Romney's way. It's a roll of the dice and Obama has the house advantage, but with the stakes this high Romney has plenty of money to play with, and a lucky streak is not out of the question.
* SOURCE: Real Clear Politics
Friday, June 15, 2012
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Choice, Freedom, And A Few Select Phrases: A Republican Primer
We have all heard them by now, those gold standards repeated again and again by conservatives to emphasize their talking points. I have talked about some of these before, but lets review some of the major touch tones that Republicans just love to throw around, and examine what they REALLY mean. The first one I've touched on before, but it is consistently tossed around in the vernacular of the Right, probably more than any other.
FREEDOM: Now the dictionary defines freedom as follows:
1. The stateof being free or at liberty rather than in confinement or under physical restraint.
FREEDOM: Now the dictionary defines freedom as follows:
1. The stateof being free or at liberty rather than in confinement or under physical restraint.
2. exemption from external control, interference, regulation, etc.
3. the power to determine action without restraint.
4. political or national independence
5. personal liberty, as opposed to bondage or slavery.
Now this goes hand in hand with another Right wing favorite, in fact they are almost inseparable.
CHOICE: Again the dictionary defines choice as follows:
1. an act or instance of choosing, a selection.
2. the right, power, or opportunity to choose, an option.
3. the person or thing chosen or eligible to be chosen.
4. an alternative.
5. an abundance or variety from which to choose.
EXPAND
6. something that is preferred or preferable to others; the best part of something.
7. a carefully selected supply.
It is rare that you not hear one of these without the other. Lets see how they work? They will tell you, Obama wants to take away our freedom. Well that's kind of broad, don't you think? What freedom exactly is coming for? Then you get, our freedom of choice. The government shouldn't be telling us what to do!
Now this argument is most often applied to the Health Care Act of 2010, a.k.a Obama Care. The government shouldn't be able to force me to buy insurance! Now once you maneuver past all the death panel, bureaucrats deciding what your doctor can and can't do, hands off my Medicare non-sense, what is the core of this argument? In this case no health care mandate, fine. They want you to have the freedom to be indigent. They want you to be able to choose to go to an emergency room and let other people pick up the tab. The freedom to get free health care, I'd choose that, wouldn't you? So they cry again, no government run health care, hands off our Medicare!
Now look at the brainiacs in the picture above. NEWS FLASH Tea Party Patriots, Medicare IS government run health care! OK, OK, lets step back a minute, maybe they mean the government is forcing you to buy government run health care, like Medicare for all? That (as you can see above is Socialism!) God help us! Wrong again wing nuts. The mandate forces you to buy PRIVATE insurance, from PRIVATE insurance companies, free market capitalism shoved right up your keester! But the death panels? the bureaucrats? My freedom, my choice? The government can't make me do anything! The government makes you buy car insurance? The government says what you can take on a plane? The government tells you how fast to drive, where you can and can't park, and on and on... and if you CHOOSE NOT to follow these government mandates you face a penalty, or worse.
What does the Health Care Act of 2010 do????
Forces insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions, TRUE. Prevents insurances companies from imposing limits on health care costs, TRUE. Allows parents to keep their children on their policies until age 26, TRUE. Prevents women from paying more for insurance just because they're women, TRUE. Supplements senior citizen drug coverage in the "doughnut hole", TRUE. Provides Medicare recipients with free wellness care, some tests, and cancer screenings, TRUE.
So if you CHOOSE NOT to participate, you face a penalty. sound familiar?
So what the hell are Republicans talking about? Your freedom to be denied emergency treatment? Your choice to go bankrupt because you can't pay your medical bills? The freedom to be told it was your choice not to get health insurance, TOUGH SHIT DEAL WITH IT! Please try to bleed somewhere else, it looks bad for our paying customers! (Remeber the Republican debate?)
But we're going to replace Obama Care! Oh really! with what?! cue (crickets chirping). Its all a lot of crap. Just because the Republicans are experts at demonizing all the things they don't like, doesn't mean they are telling you the truth, and certainly doesn't mean they're right!
Lets stay with health care, this time specifically for women. Now you would think a group that likes to advocate choice would be part of the PRO CHOICE movement? Nope, wrong again, in fact it's way to hypocritical to be ANTI-CHOICE, so instead they are PRO-LIFE, Ironic don't you think? Unfortunately the Republican definition of freedom and choice is strictly limited, particularly when it comes to individual choice and freedoms.
Remember our dictionary definitions of freedom:
2. exemption from external control, interference, regulation, etc.
3. the power to determine action without restraint.
and choice:
3. the person or thing chosen or eligible to be chosen.
Republicans believe women SHOULD NOT have freedom of choice when it comes to their bodies. When it comes to equal pay for equal work. When it comes to unnecessary invasive medical procedures that serve no medical purpose, except to influence a woman's freedom of choice regarding what is going to be done to her body. In fact, they have passed laws that make it legal to lie to women in order to influence their choice, while at the same time protecting the liers who tell them.
If you are homosexual in America, Republicans reject your freedom to love who you want. To get married if you choose to do so, and have the same 1000 plus federal protections granted to heterosexual unions. They would call these special rights, not civil rights. If we could stay locked in the 1950's which is the conservatives "American Dream" this wouldn't even be an issue. Women, minorities, gays, all knew their place. However, abortion is now legal, integration is the norm, and like so many other groups before them, gays are tired of being second class citizens because Republicans want to deny them their choice, and their freedoms.
Look at the definitions again. Freedom and choice are not predicated on the narrow ideologies of the few. They are universal concepts born of democracy. They should be embraced, advanced, and protected. The Constitution starts "We the People..." not we the privileged, we the corporations, we the wealthy. If you are one of these select entities the Right will bathe you in all the freedom's and choice's you can handle, but as an individual not so much. It is a dichotomy they cannot escape, and for a group that consistently cries out for strict adherence to the Constitution, much like the bible, they only want to apply it when and where it's convenient for them.
So if you have the temerity to somehow want to tax, regulate, or limit these groups, that can only flourish in an environment of choices free from the restraint of government, then you are a socialist. It makes perfect sense to them, why can't you see it? Which brings me to my next phrase, one of my personal favorites.
JOB CREATORS: Any corporation or individual that is flush with cash, and can only thrive in an unregulated, minimal or tax free environment in order to create jobs. Translation:
In Energy, from the fine people who brought you the gulf oil spill disaster, the oxy-moron of clean coal, and flaming water straight from your tap. There should be no regulation on where or how oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy should be used or harnessed. Energy and profits always come first. Trash the environment, pollute freely, and run your operations unencumbered by annoying agencies like the EPA. All while collectively making 40 billion + dollars a quarter, and thanks to Republicans, still receiving government subsidies.
In Banking, from the good people who brought us the housing bubble, to big to fail, and the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. Nothing to see here, thanks for the bailouts, but we've learned our lesson. We are bigger than ever before, sitting on 2 trillion dollars in capital, but we just don't want to lend right now. They also find consumer protections, and bills like Dodd-Frank really inconvenient.
Millionaires and billionaires, the people most important to Republicans. You see if they have low taxes, and little or no regulation, and eliminate the role of government to control any of this, and the economy will flourish. Really a simple idea if you think about it, there is only one problem, IT DOESN'T WORK! Republicans have been trying this magic formula for over 30 years, somebody send them the memo PLEASE!
You want to talk about JOB CREATORS, lets go there. In President Clinton's tenure as President, (a Democrat), in 8 years he created 23 million jobs and 4 national budgets with a surplus. He did this with a corporate tax rate just 4% higher than what it is today. Now lets look at George W. Bush (a Republican). In his 8 years he created 3 million jobs, gave 1 Trillion dollars in tax breaks to the rich, (which are still in place), and raised the national debt to 10 Trillion dollars. Add in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a prescription drug benefit for Medicare, none of which were paid for, and he left office handing Obama the biggest financial disaster in decades. The month Obama was elected, November 2008, we lost 728, 000 jobs. This last week Republicans shredded Obama for creating only 69,000 jobs. Obama has created more jobs in 3 years than Bush did in 8. All with a banking crisis, an economic meltdown both here and in Europe, and a Republican congress who wouldn't concede the sky is blue if Obama said so. So all these short term memory conservatives want to blame Obama, if you disagree with any of the Rights lame explanations for our economic woe you get my next favorite phrase.
CLASS WARFARE: It's not fair to blame the success of the corporations and the rich, that only serves to divide us not unite us. Look at the chart below:
Who's being divided, and who's being united? Wall street is overwhelming Main street, the 1% are squeezing the 99%. The middle class in this country is dying people! We are suppose to be the greatest country on earth? Then why are we 5th in the WORLD in income disparity, 5TH! That's more like a statistic for some totalitarian backwater in Asia or Africa. After all, your a high school graduate making $11 dollars an hour at the food barn, if you work hard you to could be a millionaire, one of us, all you have to do is reach for it. Republicans, PLEASE stop blowing smoke up my ass, your going to ruin my autopsy when I die with no health insurance. There are millions of Americans in that very situation and believe that dream is possible. The American Dream has been hijacked by corporations and the rich, who play that tune while millions of Americans follow only to be drowned in the ocean.
You want to talk CLASS WARFARE. Mitt Romney and Scott Walker have showed us that if you have enough money, the prize can be yours. Unfortunately that means our government, our politicians, our rights, and yes our freedoms and our choice. What happens to your body, to your environment, your vote, your love, is all for sale to the highest bidder. It's not just a cliche anymore, its a fact. A very sobering, scary, and quite real fact.
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