Obama's Achilles Heal

Most people agree that the popular vote in the coming Presidential election is going to be very close. However, in the electoral college where Presidential decisions are made, the President continues to hold an edge. It is generally a given these days that the northeast and pacific west go Democratic, while the south, excluding Florida, and the interior west go Republican. This leaves a few "battleground states" to pick the winner. While some pundits have as many as a dozen "battlegrounds", I have just a few, they are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. If Obama can hold the standard Democratic states, and just 2 of these 4, he wins. In past years the major battlegrounds have been Florida and Ohio, and while they are still very important, Obama can loose both of them and still win the election. Romney really needs to win both, to have any chance at beating Obama. At present I have them splitting, Florida to Romney, Ohio to Obama. Even though Romney is currently winning Florida by less than 0.5%, and Obama is winning Ohio with less than 2.0%, if Obama can take just one of these states, it will serve as a nice buffer for any gains Romney can muster.... Unless?

The one area of the country that we have not talked about, fractures. It has been a Democratic stronghold of late, but shows signs it may not be able to be taken for granted. I'm talking about the upper mid-west, specifically Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.

In Iowa: Obama is leading here by only 1.8%*. Iowa has 6 electoral votes, and in 2008 went big for Obama by 10 points. It has voted Democratic 4 out of the last 5 elections.

In Wisconsin: Obama is leading here by 3.4%*. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes, and in 2008 also went big for Obama by 14 points. It has voted Democratic 5 out of the last 5 elections.

In Michigan: Obama is leading here by 4.7%*. Michigan has 16 electoral votes, and in 2008 went for Obama by 16 points. It has voted Democratic 5 out of the last 5 elections.

In Ohio: Obama is leading here by 1.8%*. Ohio has 18 electoral votes, and in 2008 went for Obama by 5 points. It has voted Democratic 3 out of the last 5 elections.

While Obama won all these states in 2008, the current margins have them very much in question? In Iowa he's down 8.2%, in Wisconsin down 10.6%, in Michigan down 11.3%, and in Ohio down 3.2%.

This is Mitt Romney's back door. If he can take 2, or even 3 of these states, the President's foundation begins to crumble. However, if he did loose Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but won both Florida and Ohio he still wins. As you begin to go through all the potential scenarios one universal truth remains, and that is that Romney's path to the White House is much more difficult than Obama's.

The 4 states I mention here are currently light blue, the question is will they stay that way? The margins are weak, and with Scott Walker's win in Wisconsin, there is renewed hope by Republicans that the Badger State may be up for grabs. Iowa and Ohio are almost dead even, and Michigan Romney's main home state, is drifting right. A poll released just yesterday, had Obama up in the Wolverine State by just one point. The poll before that had Romney up by one.

All this stands as a reminder that right now Obama is winning where it counts, but his leads are tenuous and it won't take much to turn the tide in Romney's favor. As economic news remains bleak, and Europe continues to implode, there are a lot of intangibles out there that the President has no control over, that may tip things Romney's way. It's a roll of the dice and Obama has the house advantage, but with the stakes this high Romney has plenty of money to play with, and a lucky streak is not out of the question.


* SOURCE: Real Clear Politics