Iranian Election A Blow To Democracy, As Well As The Middle East

After President Obama's historic speech in Cairo June 4th, A new tone of hope and mutual co-operation was presented to the Arab world by the United States. It got high marks by most, although some thought it to harsh on Israel, and that is an issue for another installment. However, the new tone seemed to produce immediate results with the latest election in Lebanon, handing Iranian & Syrian backed Hezbollah a resounding defeat in that countries latest electoral contest. This has given birth to the new term "The Cairo Effect" or "The Obama Effect", and while this contest proved not only pro western, it stirred thousands in Iran to rally in the thousands against the regime run by current President Mahmoud Ahmedinajad.

That being said, as the Iranian election began to unfold, something suspect seemed in the works. Then as the election results were tallied the nations opposition parties took to the streets in the thousands to protest the final result. President Ahmedinajad gaining 64% of the vote, while opposition leader Mir Hassein Mousavi garnished only 34%. Recent polling put Mousavi's support in urban areas at 70% shortly before the election took place, and in a country where the median age is 25 years old, he also boasted the support of that younger demographic. All that considered, the current results as they stand certainly seem suspect. People continue to take to the streets in the thousands to protest, despite a ban. Mir Hassein Mousavi declared "I'm warning I will not surrender to this dangerous charade. The result of such performance by some officials will jeopardize the pillars of the Islamic Republic and will establish tyranny..."

Despite the national unrest the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the real power in Iran, said "Iranians should respect Ahmadinajad's victory". President Ahmadinajad has called the election "real and free" and called the current popular unrest "...not important". All this while clashes with riot police in the streets of the Capital Terhan seem to have no end in site. Now emboldened by his supposed victory, Ahmadinajad has taken steps to cut off Iran from the outside world, as well as, arrest well known and long standing opposition leaders. All with the blessing of his allies in the clerical establishment.

So should the Obama Administration continue to hold out its hand to an Iranian leader whose legitimacy is now suspect? On the heals of the successful speech in Cairo should we continue to embrace an attempt at dialogue with Iran. It certainly makes the situation much more difficult for the Obama Administration who has genuinely tried to thaw the rather cold view of the United States in the Arab world. However, in light of recent events, and providing these election results hold up, I don't know how we can now seriously engage Iran in any kind of substantive talks with a spokesman we know holds no legitimacy.

It certainly ads to the ongoing turmoil that defines the middle east. I am equally confident it has increased the tensions between Iran and Israel, as well as, the west. The question now is where does Iran go from here? Ahmadinajad will certainly see this false mandate as a boost to increase his inflammatory rhetoric, and will accordingly turn his sabre rattling up a notch. I think the bigger question is this, will Iran's younger generation allow this new government to solidify. Clearly the discontent is real, but are they willing to choose revolution to secure what the democratic process has failed to deliver. Only time will tell, but I think one thing is sure, this new generation of Iranian's are not going to be ruled by a group of old men indefinitely. It is just a question of whether they seize this opportunity, or the next.