Republicans Take The House... Now What Happens?

Well as we all know by now, the Republicans made sweeping gains in last weeks election. However, despite their cries that this is a mandate for their party, I wouldn't go that far. First, they needed 39 seats to take control of the House, 49 seats were held by Democrats swept in on Obama's coat tails in 2008, and took districts that were actually carried by John McCain. So given the political atmosphere Republican control was pretty much assured. My latest information has them taking 70 seats total, the minority of those were so called "Blue Dog" Democrats who ran from their party and their President, and lost anyway. To them I say a hearty "Goodbye" as they were Democrats in name only. In the Senate, it was to bad Mary Landrieu(D-LA) and Ben Nelson(D-NE) were not running, and while Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) got the ax, she was replaced by Joe Manchin(D-WV) who in my view is worse. However, that being said, what will the new congress look like? In the Senate 51(D), 45(R), and 3(I). When you factor who the Independents caucus with its 53(D) to 46(R).

When Congress has a 11% approval rating and dislike for Republicans and Democrats is equal at 53% I'm not sure how you interpret that as a mandate, but Republicans will do their best. The House now looks like this: 186(D) to 239(R) with 10 seats still undecided. Now of those 239 Republicans almost half, 113 affiliate themselves with the Tea Party. Which raises the question which of the Republicans two new faces will dominate policy. If I was a betting man, my money would go to the Tea Party faction. They are louder, unfazed by regular Republican attempts to rein them in, and almost have that "Mission from God" mentality that doesn't make much room for compromise on their core issues. However, lets not fool ourselves here, compromise has been a dirty word for Republicans the last 2 years, why should they change now? Especially with more radical elements now legitimately part of the political process.

What do they want now that they have "taken back" the government? Well they want to cut spending, but won't say where? Reform entitlements like Social Security and Medicare, but won't put them on the table? This is a good one, cut discretionary spending? This is a kind of all encompassing catch phrase which is meant to make you believe cuts to make government leaner across the board. Then they preface it with except for Defense, Entitlements, and the Bush tax cuts. So what's left? Education, Energy, Homeland Security is that where they want to cut spending?

The cruel reality is this, the biggest thing they are hitting at the moment is the repeal of Health Care Reform. They can pass all the bills about this in the House they want, but they will never see light on the floor of the U.S. Senate and they know it. It is an exercise in futility that will only waste time on meaningless legislation so they can appease their base and say "we tried". On the other hand, all these deficit reducing spending cutters have 2 big problems to confront, one in the not so distant future, and one right up front. Up front we have the Bush tax cuts slated to expire the end of this year. They have been asked a million times where the 700 billion dollars will come from to pay for these, but they have yet to give an answer? So do they add 700 billion dollars to the deficit as their first act in fiscal responsibility, or will they magically, finally, find a way to fund these cuts? I can't wait to see how this plays out. The second fiscal quandary is the raising of the Federal Government's debt ceiling, currently at 15.3 trillion dollars. Depending on the economy this little problem may be on the radar as early as February. Can Republicans cut spending that quickly as to avoid this problem? Not as chance. So do you let the Federal Government go into default on its loans causing a world wide crisis? or raise the debt ceiling, once again disappointing all those fiscal conservatives screaming for less government.

Republicans should be careful what they wish for? You can't just sit on your hands now and watch the Democrats implode, you have to get off your asses and get in the game. You have a leadership position now, and millions of conservative voters that went to the polls last week to appease, hey good luck with that.