Well a Republican debate, and the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa has kept Republican presidential hopefuls on their toes over the last 5 days. The debate had few notable moments as the candidates took aim at each other, rather than the President, no doubt to swing Iowa voters for the Straw Poll. They concentrated on the ever looming specter of an out of control Federal Government, and a renewed pledge to cut spending and not raise taxes. This was capped by a unanimous show of hands to the question, "...if you were given a debt reduction bill that was a 10 to 1 ratio of budget cuts vs. raising revenues would you take the deal?" They all said "No". A scary message from a field that seems captured by the intransigence of the Tea Party crowd.
As for the Ames Straw Poll Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN), and Chairman of the Republican Tea Party Caucus won the most votes, with Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) just 150 votes behind her. Tim Pawlenty captured a distant third place showing, which effectively put him out of the contest. He put all his resources into the Straw Poll, and a dismal third place, coupled with empty coffers forced his exit from the race.
He was replaced by Texas Governor Rick Perry who announced his intentions to seek the White House in South Carolina yesterday. Perry who brings 26 years of political experience to the table, is categorized as a prolific campaigner, and no one to take lightly. He will no doubt grab the spotlight for a time, the question is will he be able to sustain some momentum, or simply fall in line with the rest of the mediocre Republican field? There is general consensus he needs to hit the ground running, due to his late entry into the race.
The big problem with all of this is Iowa. The State of Iowa is not a true litmus test for mainstream America, but because they're the first delegate contest in the Nation, they get bombarded with media attention a full year before the actual contest. Iowa's Republican electorate is heavily evangelical, and I think it's fair to say dominated more by social conservative issues, than mainstream conservative issues. Which is why Mitt Romney, and Jon Huntsman did not fully participate here. The only mainstream Republican to participate was Tim Pawlenty, and he is now gone. Why? Because mainstream Republican ideals do not resonate there. Republican Iowa is bible land, bastion of one man - one woman marriage, gun toting NRA members, Pro-Life fanatics, and uncompromising fiscal Tea Party rubes. So the candidates doing well here, are the ones who embrace these views. So it comes as absolutely no surprise when Michelle Bachmann wins here. The Republican field as I see it breaks down this way:
The Mainstream Republican: Mitt Romney
The Right Wing Tea Party Extremists: Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum.
The Short Lived Bottom feeders: Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Thaddius
McCotter.
In my experience as a political analyst, oddly enough Republicans are very predictable when it comes to picking their Presidential nominees. They generally choose the person who has done the time, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain. All were people who made runs in the past and fell short, but were eventually rewarded by the party despite their ability to win the General Election. So going out on a limb early here, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, because he's done the time. Now the battle for king of the extremists will be entertaining to watch, but will most likely only produce the V.P. pick, so that when all is said and done, the crazies will have a place at the table. Their battlegrounds will be States like Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia, and the Deep South, look for Michelle Bachmann and Rick Perry to be the main contenders here. Romney will most likely get the lions share of Pawlenty's supporters, and will eventually get Jon Huntsmans people as well, so hang in there, the Iowa feeding frenzy won't end until January 2012, and most likely a few more names will be gone by then as well.
As for the Ames Straw Poll Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN), and Chairman of the Republican Tea Party Caucus won the most votes, with Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) just 150 votes behind her. Tim Pawlenty captured a distant third place showing, which effectively put him out of the contest. He put all his resources into the Straw Poll, and a dismal third place, coupled with empty coffers forced his exit from the race.
He was replaced by Texas Governor Rick Perry who announced his intentions to seek the White House in South Carolina yesterday. Perry who brings 26 years of political experience to the table, is categorized as a prolific campaigner, and no one to take lightly. He will no doubt grab the spotlight for a time, the question is will he be able to sustain some momentum, or simply fall in line with the rest of the mediocre Republican field? There is general consensus he needs to hit the ground running, due to his late entry into the race.
The big problem with all of this is Iowa. The State of Iowa is not a true litmus test for mainstream America, but because they're the first delegate contest in the Nation, they get bombarded with media attention a full year before the actual contest. Iowa's Republican electorate is heavily evangelical, and I think it's fair to say dominated more by social conservative issues, than mainstream conservative issues. Which is why Mitt Romney, and Jon Huntsman did not fully participate here. The only mainstream Republican to participate was Tim Pawlenty, and he is now gone. Why? Because mainstream Republican ideals do not resonate there. Republican Iowa is bible land, bastion of one man - one woman marriage, gun toting NRA members, Pro-Life fanatics, and uncompromising fiscal Tea Party rubes. So the candidates doing well here, are the ones who embrace these views. So it comes as absolutely no surprise when Michelle Bachmann wins here. The Republican field as I see it breaks down this way:
The Mainstream Republican: Mitt Romney
The Right Wing Tea Party Extremists: Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum.
The Short Lived Bottom feeders: Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Thaddius
McCotter.
In my experience as a political analyst, oddly enough Republicans are very predictable when it comes to picking their Presidential nominees. They generally choose the person who has done the time, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain. All were people who made runs in the past and fell short, but were eventually rewarded by the party despite their ability to win the General Election. So going out on a limb early here, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, because he's done the time. Now the battle for king of the extremists will be entertaining to watch, but will most likely only produce the V.P. pick, so that when all is said and done, the crazies will have a place at the table. Their battlegrounds will be States like Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia, and the Deep South, look for Michelle Bachmann and Rick Perry to be the main contenders here. Romney will most likely get the lions share of Pawlenty's supporters, and will eventually get Jon Huntsmans people as well, so hang in there, the Iowa feeding frenzy won't end until January 2012, and most likely a few more names will be gone by then as well.
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