After careful consideration the answer is "No". So why does he have commanding leads in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida? It's because he is just another flavor of the month for the Republican faithful. He is getting a closer look, because he is peaking just as the real voting is about to begin. Why is he on fire right now? Simple, for the same reason Trump, Bachmann, Perry, and Cain were on fire before him, he excites the extreme right. As I have said many times before, the hard core, right wing, social conservative Tea Party types are so angry, they are desperate for a fighter that can take Obama to the political woodshed. Bill Clinton felt our pain, Newt Gingrich feels their anger, and they love it.
The problem is, while he is ruby red meat for the right, he is toxic to the center, and therefore unelectable. Conservatives are still screaming for anyone but Romney, and simply can't bring themselves to embrace the fact that he is their best chance to win next November. In a recent NBC/WSJ Poll, 50% of those polled would not vote for Gingrich under any circumstance, %50! Independent voters have a big problem with Newt Gingrich too, and without Independents you cannot win the White House.
He is well versed, but unpredictable, outspoken, yet abrasive, a fresh breeze for the right, and a cold wind for the rest of us. He has made a very disciplined effort to keep his cool, and not fight fire with fire. He has resisted any and all efforts to show his true self to voters, a real task, considering his not so distant past has plenty of examples. However, he cannot escape that past, one that since 1994 has rubbed a lot of people in Washington the wrong way. Those that knew him and served with him in Congress, and those that have long carried the banner for the conservative media (with the exception of FOX), all remember the arrogant former speaker who was ousted by his own party. In fact, they are in a panic at the prospect of a Gingrich nomination, and are saying so with alarming urgency. The Republican establishment is scared to death of Newt Gingrich, because the last candidate to cry "...extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice." lost by a landslide. My apology's to Barry Goldwater, who would be spinning like a lathe at the current Republican Party.
I submit to you that by the end of January, and probably sooner, Gingrich's star will have gone the way of those that came before him. He is morally bankrupt, ethically challenged, touts ideas way outside the mainstream of America, and is so pretentious as to make you cringe when he speaks. He has no political organization to speak of, and is not equipped to carry his somewhat twisted vision to the masses. He is leading in the Iowa polls, but it's a caucus. He does not have the boots on the ground to turn that into a victory. My money is on Ron Paul to win Iowa, but let's face it while Iowa is the first in the nation contest, it's last in predicting who will be President. So for all the media hype and attention Iowa draws, politically it's a non-starter for whoever wins there. The Republican right is running out of alternatives to Mitt Romney, and unless they draft someone at the convention, which won't happen, Romney is going to be the man. The question now is, can the hard right take him for real?
Friday, December 16, 2011
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