As Iowa Goes, So Goes Iowa

Finally, the dog and pony show that is the Iowa Caucus is over, and once again we're left with more questions than answers. Even with a razor thin victory for Mitt Romney of only 8 votes, I think it's safe to say evangelical social conservatives, are clearly still not on board. I also think it's clear that if the evangelical social conservative vote wasn't fractured by Perry, Bachmann, and maybe even Gingrich, Rick Santorum would have run away with Iowa. So the first Republican contest was decided by those fine folks who brought you the climate change hoax, evolution, creationism, and anti-abortion domestic terrorists. These people beleive you put your hand on the Constitution to uphold the Bible. Be that as it may, despite their best efforts to pick a President instead of an ideology, Iowans just couldn't help themselves. Those 8 votes that carried the state for Romney may well have saved Iowa's relevance, as the first in the nation contest, and then again maybe it won't.

So what happens next? Well Romney still has the 25% glass ceiling problem. Ron Paul's libertarians also seems stuck at around 20% So that leaves 55% of conservative voters still clamoring for a candidate other than Romney. Has Rick Santorum become that man? (God I hope so), If Perry and Bachmann bail out this week, does Santorum get those votes? Does he have the money and organization to go the distance?

Well lets see, If Perry and Bachmann bail, or better yet endorse Santorum, we may have a contest on our hands. Does Santorum have the organization and money to go the distance? No, plain and simple. He may get a money boost in the coming weeks, but the next 3 contests are coming on to fast for any new found gains to make an impact. Lets not forget Newt Gingrich waiting in the wings for a come back of his own. He has vowed to take the gloves off against Romney, whose negative adds in Iowa cut his support in half. So for the next few weeks, or at least until South Carolina, Gingrich is out to damage Romney any way he can. This won't help Newt, his negatives are just to great, but it might help Santorum. So it's gonna be a nasty couple of weeks I'd say, and the real winner here is President Obama. They are creating his re-election commercials for him.

I'm still standing by my prediction that Mitt Romney will get the nomination, and despite a weak 8 point victory in Iowa, it still goes in the "W" column. He has a comfortable lead heading into New Hampshire next week. So, the issue now is can he hold onto it under the whithering fire he no doubt is going to feel in the next 6 days. New Hampshire will be his first opportunity to shatter the 25% barrier, unless the coming wave of attacks impacts that lead. Six days is an eternity in politics, and if conservatives can begin to consolidate around Santorum, and he makes a top 3 showing in the granite state, South Carolina will be lining up to be a real battle royale.

In a nutshell, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman, and Gingrich are finished. Some will drop sooner than others, but trust me their all done. Ron Paul will go the distance with his 20% and hopefully run as an Independent (but I doubt it), and Rick Santorum will be the Mike Huckabee of 2012, but will be unable to compete long term. His money and organization will be unable to keep up with the pace of the contests, and eventually he too will fold. So once again the mainstream moderate conservative will win the nomination, and over half of the Republican electorate will be pissed off about it. Keep your T.V.'s on, its going to be a bumpy ride the next 2 weeks, and should also prove very entertaining.