Just when you think you have this whole Republican primary thing figured out, a new surprise keeps us guessing. The latest coup compliments of Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, in what were supposed to be walk aways for Mitt Romney, turned into yet another indicator Republicans just don't like the former Massachusetts Governor. In Missouri, where Senator McCain won in 2008, Santorum won with an 18 point margin of victory, and carried all of the states 114 counties. The states delegates will be apportioned next month. In Minnesota, a state Mitt Romney carried big in 2008, he lost to Santorum here by a whopping 30 points, and with 4 counties yet to be decided, Romney didn't carry a single county here either. Finally, and probably most impressive, is Santorum's win in Colorado. The important western swing state gave Santorum a 5 point win here.
So in what was supposed to be a quiet February, where Mitt Romney was going to put a little distance between his fellow contenders, has turned into a real scrap for delegates. Where did this come from? Three things as I see it. First, the tidal wave of negative advertising between Romney and Gingrich has been instrumental in highlighting the flaws of two candidates who were heavily flawed to begin with. Second, Santorum's consistently weak showings up to this point, has allowed him to stay out of the firestorm of negative advertising and focus on his message. He also spent a great deal of personal time in these states, contests I think Romney took for granted. Third, The recent contraception mandate issued by the Obama administration is an issue made for Rick Santorum, and he has exploited it to the fullest, and I assume will continue to do so.
So lets look at the Republican Primary Map. PINK - Santorum RED - Gingrich DARK RED - Romney WHITE - Upcoming Contests through March 3rd.
The next contests on the list Maine's Caucus Feb. 11th, followed by the Arizona and Michigan Primaries on the 28th, and then the Washington State Caucuses March 3rd. All this leading us up to Super Tuesday on March 6th. In what was supposed to be a fairly uneventful primary process has turned into a scrum, and the biggest loser is Mitt Romney. This race is as fluid as ever, but look for a few things going forward. Rick Santorum has now become a real threat, so look for a new boatload of negative ads to come his way. Mitt Romney is not going to walk into this nomination, it's going to be a knife fight all the way down the line, and with Santorum surging in the bible belt, and Gingrich licking his chops for the contests in the bumpkin belt, this race is going to get very interesting in the coming weeks. Now here is the good part, the more people know about these candidates, the less they like them. So with a battle for the Republican nomination slugging it out until August, and each state proving how unhappy the electorate is with their choices. The result will be a battered nominee to weak to compete in November, while the whole time independents are running to Obama, it just doesn't get any better than that.
So in what was supposed to be a quiet February, where Mitt Romney was going to put a little distance between his fellow contenders, has turned into a real scrap for delegates. Where did this come from? Three things as I see it. First, the tidal wave of negative advertising between Romney and Gingrich has been instrumental in highlighting the flaws of two candidates who were heavily flawed to begin with. Second, Santorum's consistently weak showings up to this point, has allowed him to stay out of the firestorm of negative advertising and focus on his message. He also spent a great deal of personal time in these states, contests I think Romney took for granted. Third, The recent contraception mandate issued by the Obama administration is an issue made for Rick Santorum, and he has exploited it to the fullest, and I assume will continue to do so.
So lets look at the Republican Primary Map. PINK - Santorum RED - Gingrich DARK RED - Romney WHITE - Upcoming Contests through March 3rd.
The next contests on the list Maine's Caucus Feb. 11th, followed by the Arizona and Michigan Primaries on the 28th, and then the Washington State Caucuses March 3rd. All this leading us up to Super Tuesday on March 6th. In what was supposed to be a fairly uneventful primary process has turned into a scrum, and the biggest loser is Mitt Romney. This race is as fluid as ever, but look for a few things going forward. Rick Santorum has now become a real threat, so look for a new boatload of negative ads to come his way. Mitt Romney is not going to walk into this nomination, it's going to be a knife fight all the way down the line, and with Santorum surging in the bible belt, and Gingrich licking his chops for the contests in the bumpkin belt, this race is going to get very interesting in the coming weeks. Now here is the good part, the more people know about these candidates, the less they like them. So with a battle for the Republican nomination slugging it out until August, and each state proving how unhappy the electorate is with their choices. The result will be a battered nominee to weak to compete in November, while the whole time independents are running to Obama, it just doesn't get any better than that.
No comments:
Post a Comment