Can Gingrich's Southern Strategy Hold Against Santorums Surge?

There hasn't been much talk about the most hated man in American politics, of course I speak of former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. The fact is since his big upset in South Carolina, Gingrich has had to settle for the bronze is most of the contests that have followed. So the question is can he capture the South, or as I affectionately call it, "The Bumpkin Belt", to remain a viable candidate in the ever changing Republican primary process? His first opportunity at some of these states won't happen until Super Tuesday March the 6th. His home state of Georgia is in play, as well as, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia. He stated over the weekend, any candidate who loses their home state would be put into a very compromised position. The reference was more about Mitt Romney's upcoming battle against Father Rick in Michigan, but made the overall point about him in Georgia, Santorum in Pennsylvania, and Ron Paul in Texas. So lets look at some numbers, and see how Gingrich's would be strategy is looking at the moment.



In Georgia:

Gingrich - 41%
Romney - 26%
Santorum - 16%
Paul - 6%

So it looks like, for the moment, Gingrich has a comfortable lead in his home state. Georgia is also the biggest delegate prize on Super Tuesday with 76, and would probably give Gingrich the will to fight another day. Mike Huckabee won the state in 2008.






In Oklahoma:

Santorum - 39%
Romney - 23%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%

It would appear here, Newt is headed for another bronze, trailing Father Rick by 21 points. John McCain won the state in 2008.






In Tennessee:

Santorum - 34%
Romney - 27%
Gingrich - 16%
Paul - 13%

Once more Newt looks headed for a third place finish, but there is still plenty of time for these numbers to change. In a race as fluid as this one, and with Father Rick doubling down on crazy this last weekend, anything is possible. Mike Huckabee won the state in 2008.







In Virginia:

Romney - 68%
Paul - 19%

Virginia is going to be a shoe in for Mitt Romney as neither Newt Gingrich, or Father Rick, got their paperwork in on time to make the ballot. So Romney can count on at least one state win Super Tuesday. I wonder if the trees are the right height in Virginia, like they are in Michigan? I guess we'll find out later. John McCain won here in 2008.

So looks like Gingrich is holding in Georgia, but faltering in the other southern states where he hoped to make a play. So the beat goes on, the next big event on the horizon is yet another Republican debate in Arizona, this coming Wednesday night at 8pm on CNN. So take a Xanex, or three, and settle in for a night of laughs and lies. Newt lost his debate mojo in Florida, we'll see if he can recapture the magic come Wednesday.