Romney Pulls Out Big Win In Michigan

After weeks of speculation and a growing threat from challenger Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney re-established his front runner status last night. In Arizona, Romney beat Santorum by 20 points, and carried every county in the state. In Michigan, Romney's home state, He pulled out a 3 point win against a surging Father Rick. So now that the dust has settled, Romney has emerged to fight another day. This despite a campaign that has been foundering, and desperate to find a way to connect with conservative voters. While this win in Michigan has put the wind back in his sails, it failed to take any out of Santorum's, who remains a real threat one week out from Super Tuesday.

Let's also not forget the Washington State Caucus this Saturday March 3rd, where the latest polling had Santorum winning here by 11 points against his closest competitor Romney.

So where do we go from here? Well the contests are going to become more frequent, starting with Super Tuesday on March 6th, which has 10 contests, with over 400 delegates ups for grabs. Then from March 10th to the 24th another 11 contests will follow fast and furious, holding another 381 delegates for distribution.

My take on all this? Mitt Romney got his must win in Michigan, but it had nothing to do with Mitt Romney. Michigan was Rick Santorum's to lose, and he did just that. Father Rick's ultra conservative religious diatribes over the last 10 days hurt him in Michigan, where he had a comfortable lead just one week ago, only to lose it, and hand Romney a 3 point win. While Santorum shot himself in the foot in Michigan, he is far from out of the race. However, the tables have been turned, and the pressure is now on Father Rick to win in Ohio. He holds an 11 point lead there currently, but a week is an eternity in politics, and with Romney regaining momentum, will Father Rick be able to hold on there? If Super Tuesday was held today I'm guessing the states would fall like this:

ROMNEY:
Alaska
Massachusetts
Idaho
North Dakota
Vermont
Virginia

SANTORUM:
Oklahoma
Ohio
Tenneesse

GINGRICH:
Georgia

A little bit for everybody, and a very good indicator that this process is far from over. Some things to consider? 1) Can Romney use this new momentum to his advantage? In a campaign plagued by gaffs, and no real message other than "I'm better than the other guy" can he finally find a way to rally Republicans, and more importantly, attract conservatives? 2) Did Rick Santorum's ultra social conservative rants on contraception, education, and religion, damage his candidacy to a point he may not be able to recover? He let a lot of genies out of the bottle in the last 10 days, genies that can't be put back in the bottle. Did he destroy his chances as a general election candidate, by trying too hard to fire up the conservative base? 3) If Newt Gingrich wins in Georgia, as expected, will that be enough to keep him in the race? There is no question should Gingrich remain, it helps Romney. In fact, Romney's win in Arizona was in large part due to Santorum and Gingrich splitting the conservative vote there. This roller coaster ride continues, starting Saturday in Washington State. Who will survive the twists and turns, as things get fast and furious, we shall see.