As the Republican brawl for the nomination rolls on, it would seem Mitt Romney is beginning to pull away from the pack. After a big 12 point win in Illinois last night, doubts about HOW he's going to win the nomination, are slowly giving way to WHEN. Romney continues to pile up the delegates. In Puerto Rico last Sunday, he took all of the territories 20 delegates. Although it's not real hard when Rick Santorum goes all the way down there to tell Puerto Ricans they need to speak English, hows that for a lead balloon? He got 8% of the vote, for an effort that was a true waste of his time, Romney went on to win with 83% of the vote.
Illinois teaches us a few things about Romney and Father Rick. Romney is more likely to win in traditionally moderate, general election blue states. While Santorum is more likely to win in hard core conservative red states. Where moderate, upper income, fiscal conservatives dominate, Romney does well. Where very conservative, low income, evangelical social conservative rule, Santorum wins. The problem once again, is we are traveling into a series of struggles that favor Santorum, proving yet another opportunity to steal Romney's thunder. The next Primary is this Saturday the 24th, in Louisiana, where Santorum holds a 13 point lead. To start the April contests on Tuesday the 3rd, we have Primaries in Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Wisconsin. Again in Wisconsin, Santorum leads by 18 points.
The problem for Santorum is that he's running out of time to close the gap. He can't get the 1144 he needs to win, but is he still in a position to deny the 1144 to Ronmney? It is still possible, but is becoming more elusive with each passing day. In April, the majority of the challenges will be in the northeast, which is Romney country, with the exception of the battle in Pennsylvania. April could just be the month that the math will prove too much for Father Rick to overcome. However, should he survive, May brings the contests back into his court, with 7 of the 8 encounters in the south, and mid west.
It should be noted that Santorum simply cannot lay off the hot button religious rhetoric which has made him famous. It is also clear his inability to maintain his focus on the economy, as opposed to social issues, is hurting him. He recently claimed he didn't care about the unemployment rate, that his campaign was about something bigger? Bad news for the millions still unemployed, who he has clearly given a back seat, when it comes to promoting his social conservative crusade.
Just to give you a taste of the kind of people I'm talking about, give a listen to Pastor Dennis Terry of Louisiana, who spoke before introducing Father Rick on the campaign trail. If you can stomach watching until the end, you'll see Rick Santorum just clapping away in support. So as you watch ask yourself, are these the kind of people I want running my country? These are the people Rick Santorum wants in the front seat, not the unemployed, not those focused on the economy. These people are the "something bigger" he's talking about. So when you count all the votes people have cast for Father Rick, think of Pastor Terry, and be afraid... be very afraid.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgHR_jnFrvQ
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