Despite sweeping last nights 3 primaries, Mitt Romney just can't seem to put Rick Santorum away. Romney won with 49% of the vote in Maryland, and 70% in the District of Columbia. However, in Wisconsin where the Massachusetts Governor was polling 5 to 10 points in front of Santorum, he only pulled out a 4 point victory, falling within the margin of error. Wisconsin, which many thought of as Santorum's Waterloo, once again failed to deliver the knockout blow the Romney camp was hoping for. Having won with such a weak performance in Wisconsin, can father Rick live to fight another day?
The media, as well as, the Republican establishment, have been saying a Santorum loss in Wisconsin would be his death knell. I'm sure the Romney people want to promote that view, but Santorum refuses to go away. He has pledged to remain in the primary process until Romney gets the 1,144 delegates needed to capture the nomination. So what are the major questions going forward? 1) Can Santorum resist the pressure to get out of the race, so Romney can begin to consolidate his position against the President? 2) Can Santorum survive the 3 week barrage of negative ads that Romney is sure to send his way? 3) The next five primaries on April 24th heavily favor Governor Romney, with the exception of Pennsylvania, which is Santorum's home state. Current polling has the former Senator up by 6 points over Romney. 4) Can Santorum pull off a win in Pennsylvania, and survive into May where the contests shift dramatically in his favor.
Wisconsin is just another in a string of missed opportunities, that have plagued the Romney campaign since January. If he had pulled off the decisive 12 point win he got in Illinois, then yes, I would say Santorum is effectively out. The problem is he didn't, and it is hard to consolidate your nomination with narrow victories and luke warm endorsements. The key for Santorum now is Pennsylvania. The other 4 primaries April 24th are lost causes, he shouldn't even waste his time with them. He needs to hit Pennsylvania hard for the next 3 weeks, and he must win his home state. If he fails, the May contests might fall apart in favor of Romney, who will have beaten Father Rick on his home turf.
If Santorum can make it to May, he has a great chance to give Romney a black eye all month long. Which would look really bad if you are the presumed nominee. The fact is in those states whose populations identify as over 50% evangelical, typically go to Santorum. In those states where evangelicals are less than 50%, Romney wins. So I would submit Pennsylvania, not Wisconsin is Father Rick's Waterloo. If he pulls out a big win at home he lives to fight another day, and continues to be that ever present thorn in Mitt Romney's side. Santorum's biggest problem is time, 3 weeks is a political eternity. One that Romney will utilize to the fullest, but if he can find a way to survive, May will prove to be much greener pastures, and bad news for Romney. One more thing, this isn't about Santorum winning the nomination anymore, it's about giving a voice to all those social conservatives who can't stand Romney, and know in their hearts he's going to get the nomination. It's about showing the American electorate we may have to take Romney, but we don't have to like it, and that is good for just one man, President Obama.
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